Mobility is changing beyond recognition, bringing both commercial opportunities and risks. You need to understand the challenges you face, and reposition your organization for the new era.
Three huge shifts are taking place in European mobility in this decade. These changes are being driven by an assortment of factors, from climate change and energy crises through to different consumer demands and expectations.
They’re also being driven by opportunities. New technologies are becoming increasingly viable, including autonomous driving, and big tech including Google and Apple are seeing an opportunity to move from the fringe of mobility provision to its very heart.
From automotive OEMs to public sector organizations, the mobility players who win this phase will be those who act first in adapting to the key developments that we foresee.
We expect public transportation to move towards an increase in individually determined, multi-modal travel. Users will be helped to plan multi-stage journeys in advance, and line between personal and public transportation will become increasingly blurred.
Cars will become ever more personalized spaces, with every aspect of the experience tailored towards the user.
But mass transportation will also be shaped by this increased personalization. Services will become much more dynamic and demand-led. The traditional train or bus schedule could become a thing of the past, to be replaced by a fluid system that responds to users who register their travel needs in advance.
Individual mobility will become cheaper and more attractive. This will be due to 24/7 operating modes, more efficient capacity management and greater flexibility and availability. Mobility will need to become fully inclusive to cater for those of different profiles, ages and disabilities.
One of the consequences of greater personalization will be that travel will become an increasingly productive time for users – time that they can spend on work, entertainment, shopping and household administration. This opens up the possibility of service providers from different sectors earning new revenues.
80%
Sustainability is now a universally accepted imperative across the European mobility landscape. By 2030, 80% of all manufactured engines will be green, and users will plan their journeys based on environmental impact. The days of the internal combustion engine are numbered.
However, environmental planning extends much further than simply fuel type and journey choice. e-mobility is just one small piece of a much bigger transformation. The manufacturing, maintenance, recycling and disposal of vehicles will move away from tank-to-wheel, becoming cradle-to-grave. Manufacturers will be under pressure to ensure that all resources are reused to the greatest extent possible, and have the lowest achievable carbon emissions throughout the production process.
Governments will take increasing steps to limit or phase out energy-intensive transportation. Policy decisions will be made to shape demand, such as subsidizing mass transit. Could we also see the end of short-haul air travel?
Already the move towards car subscriptions is well under way. This is a first step in the direction of consumers increasingly choosing on-demand transportation services over vehicle ownership. While they’re travelling, services and software will become more important to them than the physical vehicle and brand. The grip that car brands have had over consumers will loosen dramatically, and some may not survive the next decade. Revenue streams such as over-the-air updates are emerging that will take us far away from the traditional model of one-off car purchasing.
While modes of transportation will increase, the complexity and number of transactions for the user will drop. Instead of buying a car, securing finance, fueling, maintenance, insurance and tolls, pay-per-use services will come onstream with a simple price per journey. This shift will have far-reaching consequences for existing OEMs.
Big tech players will have a profound influence on this shift towards mobility as a service. They will contribute to infrastructure, connectivity, platforms, consumer data assets and hardware to enable the global mobility network and the services provided on it. OEMs could be reduced to mere hardware suppliers to these connectivity providers, with the user’s primary relationship being with their preferred tech platform.
Big tech will be in a position to leverage user data and insights from other products and services they offer, such as Google maps, smart phones and watches, to provide consumers with personalized mobility services and create new revenue streams through value-added services.
The shifts we’re anticipating will bring both opportunities and risks for the entire mobility ecosystem. The changes are already under way, and major players in transportation need to begin planning for the emerging trends now.
Pearsons Consulting Ltd work with organizations in every part of mobility to re-align their long-term strategic directions for what is to come. We help you create lasting transformation that ensures you are well positioned to capture the commercial opportunities that will present themselves, as well as mitigate the risks of a more competitive and fragmented environment.
